
Image courtesy of Chicagoist.com
DH and I are big fans of film critic Roger Ebert–which is not to say we always agree with him (usually, but not always). We have both of his books containing reviews of movies he gave 2 stars or less to (I Hated, Hated, Hated, Hated This Movie and Your Movie Sucks). So, since this film blog has been quite short of Oscar season news, I thought I would give y’all Roger Ebert’s Oscar picks for this year. He says, “I can’t remember a year when it seemed easier to predict the Oscars.” Of course, we all know that what should win isn’t always what does win!
I’ll give the whole category, then indicate Ebert’s picks.

Image courtesy of Manny the Movie Guy
Best Film
- Avatar
- The Blind Side
- District 9
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglorious Basterds
- Precious
- A Serious Man
- Up
- Up In the Air
Ebert likes The Hurt Locker. He also gives good reasons that Up in the Air and Avatar might have shots, but says, “Of these three, I’m predicting The Hurt Locker. If one of the other seven wins, let’s say I’ll be very surprised.
Best Director
- James Cameron for Avatar
- Katherine Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
- Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds
- Lee Daniels for Precious
- Jason Reitman for Up In the Air
Ebert says, “If you vote against Kathryn Bigelow of The Hurt Locker, you’ll be going against years of precedent that say the winner of the Directors Guild Award will win the Oscar.”
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
- George Clooney for Up In the Air
- Colin Firth for A Single Man
- Morgan Freeman for Invictus
- Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
While I would like to say that Colin Firth is totally due, Ebert has a different opinion. “Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart. The movie opened late in December and moved out more widely in January. But the distributor, Fox Searchlight, made a wise move: They screened it extensively in advance for movie critics and sent out lots of screeners. Bridges’ great performance swept the critics’ awards, won a Golden Globe, a SAG award and now looks like the winner. Jeremy Renner or George Clooney could win, but Bridges has the momentum.”
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
- Helen Mirren for The Last Station
- Carey Mulligan for An Education
- Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
- Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia
Ebert likes Sandra Bullock. “Few people saw this one coming, especially in a year where her two earlier pictures bombed, but Sandra Bullock’s comeback in The Blind Side was dazzling, and she also collected a lot of year-end awards. Meryl Streep was thought to be the front-runner for Julie & Julia, but Oscar likes a comeback role, and Streep has never needed one.”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Matt Damon in Invictus
- Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
- Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
- Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
- Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds
While I have sentimental reasons for wanting to see Harrelson and Tucci honored (I didn’t know Christopher Plummer was still alive, actually), Ebert is firm: “Christoph Waltz, a relative unknown, won the best actor award at Cannes in May 2009 for Inglourious Basterds and has never looked back. I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t expect him to win this category. A sure thing.”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Penelope Cruz in Nine
- Maggie Gyllenhall for Crazy Heart
- Anne Kendrick for Up In the Air
- Vera Farmiga for Up In the Air
- Mo’Nique for Precious
Ebert’s pretty positive about this one, too. “Here again, what looks like a sure thing: Mo’Nique, for her powerful performance as the mother in Precious. Known primarily as a TV personally and comic, she came, in a way, out of nowhere to create a character who was a damaged, cruel woman. The other four nominees were all very, very good, but Mo’Nique will win.”
I like to see comedic actors stretch their dramatic wings, so I’d be okay with Mo’Nique for that reason.
Actually, I’d be okay with all of these. Does anyone else have any predictions, or any arguments with Ebert’s thoughts? I’d love to hear them.